VIDEO: Given Elon Musk's “one in billions” probability that we are in a simulation, let's look at this idea deeper

06/03/2016 - 23:42

Kirk Nankivell | @KirkNankivell

Elon Musk created a media storm yesterday as his statement regarding the very likely possibility that we are in a simulation put reporters in a frenzy.

" would seem to follow that the odds that we’re in ‘base reality’ is one in billions..."

He went on further, saying:

"...let's imagine it's 10,000 years in the future, which is nothing on the evolutionary scale. So given that we're clearly on a trajectory to have games that are indistinguishable from reality, and those games could be played on any set-top box or on a PC or whatever, and there would probably be billions of such computers or set-top boxes, it would seem to follow that the odds that we're in base reality is one in billions. Tell me what's wrong with that argument. Is there a flaw in that argument?"
- Elon Musk | Full interview | Code Conference 2016

Nonetheless, we still do not definitively know if we are in a simulation or not (or if we are in a simulation within a simulation within a simulation...).

Musk also says that being in a simulation is a good thing because we have not yet met some "calamitous event that stops civilization.”

While we try to quantify these things and figure out whether or not we are experimenting on the mice or they on us, our pal Isaac Arthur has put together a very detailed video on the Simulation Hypothesis. You should then follow up this video (below) with the Doomsday Argument as that plays perfectly into this overall concept. Get comfortable and enjoy!